Karl's Bog

The murky world of politics (and other things) as seen from the Bog

Time to read:

5–7 minutes

Category: Trump

  • War! Again.

    War! Again. 

    For the third time in my life, the US is going to war under what appear to be false pretenses.  In 1964, there was an incident in the Gulf of Tonkin near Viet Nam which was presented as an attack on US navy ships.  It was later determined to be faulty intelligence that went uncorrected.  Forty-seven thousand Americans were killed as a result of hostile action.  Why?  We wanted to overthrow a communist government.  We failed. 

    In 2003, the US government went to great lengths to sell the country on the idea that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction.   We attacked Iraq to destroy their nuclear, chemical, and biological warfare capabilities.  There was evidence before the war that the chemical and biological weapons had been destroyed to avoid sanctions.  There was no solid evidence of a nuclear program.  We used the existence of metal tubes as proof of gas centrifuge construction for enriching uranium.  Four thousand Americans killed and thirty-two thousand wounded.  Why?  We wanted to overthrow a regime we didn’t like.  The situation in Iraq is still unstable more than 20 years later. 

    Now, we claim that Iran can produce nuclear bombs and deliver them to the US on missiles.  Eight months ago we claimed to have “obliterated” their nuclear development capacity. Maybe their missile production capability is vastly superior to analytical estimates but there is no support for that argument.  Maybe we want regime change to save the population that we encouraged to rise up against the tyrannical government. That was before we abandoned them as tens of thousands were murdered by the regime.   There has been no serious effort to prepare the nation for this war nor to explain why it is necessary.  So why this time?

    Tim Snyder in the Substack “Thinking About” suggests that there may be two other motives.  One is to enhance Trump’s personal fortune by helping to eliminate Iran as a gulf region power.  That enables countries that have been exceedingly generous to him – gifts of 747s, lucrative financial deals for his family, sale of AI chips to rich Emirati Sheiks – to influence him to use American military strength to eliminate their rival.  This is a personal corruption motive. 

    It is also possible that the goal of a foreign war is to create instability, division and fear at home and to use that fear to either cancel or constrain upcoming elections.  That might be helpful to Trump as well as to Netanyahu in Israel.  If peace and tranquility return to Israel, Netanyahu will face trial.  Trump may be concerned at the same thing as he has said numerous times that he will be impeached, again, if the Republicans lose the House of Representatives in November.  If a war is in progress, the president may argue that elections must wait and will certainly press the “rally ‘round the flag” message as Netanyahu does. 

    In “Lucid” on SubStack, February 28, Vali Nasr, professor and middle east expert, is quoted by Ruth Ben-Ghiat saying, “this war, which Prime Minister Netanyahu lobbied for, is part of a dream to expand Israeli power in the region. In support of this imperialist aim, messianic Orthodox and secular nationalist Israeli ideologies come together with Christian nationalist views”. These views coincide with much of the Trump administration as well, including Hegseth, Rubio and Ambassador Huckabee. 

    Another possible motive is regime change.   There is skepticism about regime change because we encouraged Iranians to fight the regime.  Then after the Iranian military and police killed tens of thousands doing that, we did nothing.  A bigger problem is same one we encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan.  It is easy enough to overthrow a regime but without preparation for what comes next, the war will fail.  After we overthrew the Taliban and left Afghanistan, the Taliban returned.  They were the only well-organized group in the country that had the history, breadth, and power to do so.  Same after first gulf war.  Hussein stayed in power.  As explained in Why Nations Fail, by Acemoglu and Robinson, there must be existing institutions and institutional memory to recover. Absent that, there is no pattern for the new leaders to follow to a new society.  Iranians alive today lived all or most of their lives under the Shahs or the Ayatollahs so we would expect little in the way of better institutional models. 

    When a regime is overthrown and the over-thrower does not stay to set up shop, the groups most likely to take power are the ones with guns, organization, and expertise in infrastructure management.  In Iran, that is the IRGC and their thuggish state police the Basij.  It is possible that a technocratic organization of state bureaucrats and technicians could come to power but there is no sign of a leader.  The son of the late Shah has the name but no guns, nor organization and the last Shah was chased out of the country.

    Preparation for this follow up is key.  How will we find the nuclear and missile sites and ensure they are destroyed this time?  That needs someone’s boots on the ground! How will we communicate with the rebels if they do rise up?  How will they communicate? Our international communications organizations have been gutted as have our support organizations.  Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and their Radio Farda used to be the open airwave to Iranians.  When the attack began, Radio Farda had been severely limited by Trump and Kari Lake cuts.  It is still operating but at a deficit.  USAID which used to deliver aid of all types is absorbed somewhere in the State Department and not able to operate independently. 

    We are attacking a country that represses its citizens brutally, interferes with nearby governments through their proxy fighters, and has at least a civilian nuclear and maybe a missile building program that could bear fruit in ten years.  There is another country that has already invaded a sovereign country, demands its territory, restrictions on what international organizations it can join, and the removal of its elected president.  The justification for the attack is that the invader wants the territory, is afraid the victim might join its enemies, and is a threat. They have been at war continuously for four years with over a million casualties.  Why isn’t that a higher priority for us than Iran?

    This essay will also be published on SubStack. And take a look at Tim Snyder’s “Thinking About …” and Ruth Ben-Ghiat’s Lucid SubStacks.

  • Embarrassment at Davos

    Trump’s presentation at Davos was embarrassing. I began drafting this essay thinking I would direct blame for some of this administration’s self-inflicted chaos to Republicans in congress, cabinet members, and both official and unofficial advisors.  It’s not that they deserve more blame than the Don for the costs, chaos and corruption of the government but I don’t think they get enough.  I kept coming back to the fact that Donald J. Trump is president of the United States of America and they are not.  The buck stops with him no matter how hard he tries to redirect it.  So here it is, focused on the main driver.

    I was embarrassed by the POTUS display at Davos.  What I found most embarrassing was the fact that this man-child elected by my fellow citizens has virtually no understanding of the world.  He may know how to make business deals that enrich him but he doesn’t know much else. Take geography for example.  He appears to believe that the Mercator flat map projection gives an accurate perception of the size of continents.  In fact, it makes everything nearer the poles appear much larger than they really are.  Hence his preoccupation with Greenland.  That and the fact that he has friends with business interests there.  Also, he thinks that adding that much territory will enhance his legacy.

    He also seems unaware of the ocean conditions in the far north. Greenland is in the middle of an ice pack. In winter it occupies the entire eastern and northern coasts and lurks to the west on Canadian shores. If a nation is to be successful protecting sea lanes, exploring, researching or commercializing Greenland and surrounding territory, it needs icebreakers.  Big ones!  Not for river ice but for Arctic sea ice.  The US might have 2 capable icebreakers.  The rest of NATO has between 30 and 45.  Russia has in the neighborhood of 40-50.    We are planning to build more. Seven more.  Based a design from Finland.  Pushing NATO away while trying to make a case for securing Greenland under these circumstances is at best self defeating.

    Disparaging NATO activity during the Ahgan and Iraq wars should embarrass all veterans and any American who paid any attention at all to the news. Denmark lost more soldiers per capita supporting the US on the front lines than we did. I thank you NATO.

    Another cost of pushing NATO allies away is that may cause them to consider creating a stronger European alliance that is less dependent on America.  The European Union, which includes all the NATO nations in Europe, is the world’s largest market outside the US.  China follows closely.  If Europe is sufficiently worried by the saber rattling and decides to move closer to China or to expand markets in South America, Africa or South East Asia, it would be at the expense of the US.   

    By the way, federal funding for agencies that used to produce reports on sea conditions and ice concentration has been cut.  The National Snow and Ice Data Center is no longer funded to produce reports on the extent and concentration of sea ice among others.  If we are serious about defending Greenland, wouldn’t we want to know the latest and best information about conditions in the Arctic Ocean? This is an administration whose right hand that doesn’t appear to know what the left hand already did.  

    Trump also appears not to know or care that we already have an agreement with Denmark and Greenland that gives us free rein over our military operations in Greenland.  We had many bases there from the 1950s until after the cold war.  Those bases can be resurrected and we can build others in coordination with Denmark and Greenland.  Instead of the chaos he created at Davos, he could have had agreement to proceed and we could be building or upgrading as many of the old facilities as we want or building new ones right now!  Instead of maintaining warm relations with NATO countries, he managed to irritate almost everyone in Europe, especially in Greenland and Denmark. I wonder how that will work if we actually build new bases.  Will we have to import all the workers because locals don’t want to work with us?  That should save money!  

    Tariffs, being Trump’s favorite word, also came up at Davos.  Trump threatened an additional 25% tariffs on several European countries if he did not get his way on Greenland. Canada would be in for 100% tariff if they entered a free trade agreement with China.  He also admitted that the reason for all the Greenland chaos is that it is very important to own things for him, pyschologically.  Are the tariff threats, bullying, the attacks on NATO all because of his psychological needs? 

    So, in how many ways has Trump embarrassed not only me but the whole country?  

    He is illiterate on geography, unaware of practical issues of defending the island, oblivious to loss of funding for important information about Greenland, ignorant of existing agreements, uncaring about economic damage, disparaging of our allies, and really only interested for his own psyche and his friends’ enrichment.  Not bad for a single conference!

    And all that was before the ICE disaster in Minneapolis unfolded.

    ————–

    This essay will also be published in Substack.

     

     

     

  • Making America Weak Again

    MAGA means “Make American Great Again” but what is actually happening is “Making America Weak Again”.

    The role of a national government is often described as needing to protect life, liberty and property or pursuit of happiness along with other elements that depend on the type of government. Nations that are strong do those things well. Nations that are great do them very well and do them with the success of their people in mind. Nations that are great understand that they live in a world with others. Nations that are great protect their people from foreign military adventures, from domestic and international criminals and government corruption. Their businesses are protected by strong laws securing property rights and by honest courts. They protect against unfair competition both at home and abroad. The great countries attract strong allies with whom they can share intelligence, markets and defense burdens. I assert that they also have a guiding moral direction that appeals to the people of other nations as well as their own and underlies the strength of their alliances.

    Unfortunately, America is well on the road to weakness by squandering many of those assets.

    President Trump is doing tremendous harm to America’s greatness, not making us great again.

    It began with the refocusing of FBI, CIA, DEA, DHS and other agencies’ workers away from their intended jobs and toward immigration enforcement. While it is fine to find and remove undocumented immigrants, we also have to deal with drugs, murder, kidnapping, fraud, terrorism, espionage, money laundering, human trafficking and other crimes at the national level. The staff that used to track those problems is now largely dedicated to chasing and deporting people who are for the most part law abiding citizens and productive members of the community.

    Threatening to grab Greenland is making us even weaker. First, it is an appalling moral approach. He is saying to another sovereign country that he wants their land and they should concede because he likes real estate. Consider that Russia might want Alaska back or Mexico might want Texas, Oklahoma and the rest of the land we took from them. Or China makes the stronger case for Taiwan. Or for Japan. Or Australia. China can easily argue that they need Japan and Australia for security because they stand between the US and themselves. 

    Grabbing Greenland by any means seems likely to destroy NATO. We would then lose intelligence sources, allied troops and material, the European NATO members then would be occupied on two fronts – trying to keep Russia in check in the east and trying to figure out what we are doing in the west. 

    Leaving NATO would make the security of Greenland more tenuous. If NATO is not there to help us, as they were in Afghanistan and Iraq, we lose major military support. We lose trained and experienced winter and cold weather troops. We lose military equipment. We lose major sources of intelligence from the region where the Russian navy sails on its way to the Atlantic and to the Arctic Ocean. If we want to keep Greenland out of Russia’s hands, it is far better to combat them with a larger united force. 

    Greenland is causing more domestic disruption. It is another burden on Trump’s popularity and is beginning to affect his ability to accomplish his domestic agenda. (I’m in favor of his not succeeding with his domestic agenda but rationally his Greenland stance seems to work against it). On top of the turmoil caused by ICE and reaction to ICE, it is causing Republicans in Congress to push back. It is already being suggested by – Republicans! – that moving against Greenland could cause another impeachment.

    It is also making China stronger. Countries that feel they can no longer depend on us for markets or support are turning to China. Mark Carney from Canada just visited China to build trade relations. Chinese exports to the US are down due to the tariffs but up overall as other countries have stepped up. 

    The chaos and domestic disruption could have an effect on US bonds. If lenders think they are facing more risk with American bonds, they will demand higher interest making it harder for us to sustain our debt and driving up the cost of mortgages. That’s a huge problem if it lasts beyond the current presidential term. 

    Just today, Trump threatened higher tariffs on our NATO allies who support Greenland’s independence. That promises even more costly European imports.

    Lastly, the chaos and disruption in the US and Europe means less attention being paid by the already depleted foreign relations staff to Northern Africa and the Sahel and also to southeast Asia. When no one is watching the strongmen and militias and war lords, they are freer to do as they please which is good for no one. It was when no one was watching Al-Qaeda that 9/11 happened.

    As I look at this, even considering that the US would have a huge expanse of land with rich minerals in areas, it looks like a weaker America. And a failed real estate deal.

    This essay is also published on Karl’s Substack

  • Trump’s Cowardly Enablers

    I have to write this. It’s a compulsion. I’ve been thinking of drafts and writing snippets since George Floyd’s murder and I can’t avoid it any longer. When the President of the United States of America issued a tweet insinuating that a 75 year old protester in Buffalo, NY was attempting to steal some kind of code so he could jam the police department’s communications system, I laughed. But I knew I had to do something more. So do you.

    That tweet was just the most recent example of the President’s mental and moral unfitness for the office. George Floyd died less than two weeks earlier at the hands of the police, cities were in flames, protests were being held in hundreds of cities and he felt compelled to tweet about a 75 year old attacking the police and intentionally cracking his own skull! The worst part is that when he propagated nonsense theories about one protestor, he completely ignored the causes that were being protested – police violence against black and brown people, systemic racism and George Floyd among others. I’m no longer surprised but still shocked by his daily behavior.

    What does still surprise me is the Republican enablers pretending they are deaf or blind. Didn’t hear the story, didn’t see the tweet, too busy running away from electronic devices to ensure they won’t see it. They are afraid the president will make fun of them, criticize them, campaign against them. They run away from the racism implicit in Floyd’s death and ignore the vindictive mindlessness implicit in the tweet.

    Most of the enablers apparently thought he would change or that they could control him if he was elected although they didn’t think he would be. Many of the same Republicans told reporters two or three years ago they just wanted to hide out until he was gone. “Please don’t make me say anything bad about him. He’ll get mad at me and he’s a bully. I’m afraid.” They have been hiding from him as well as from their constitutional responsibilities and oaths.

    The Constitution is our governmental rule book. But it can’t cover all situations. For example, there are few limits described for presidential powers. That’s not because the framers did not want limits. It’s just that they couldn’t anticipate everything and write it down. For many years, the control of presidential power resided in the norms of behavior expected of the president. It was self imposed, Witness Richard Nixon turning over the tapes. Those norms were more or less guaranteed by the method of selecting the candidates. Only in the late 20th century did that process begin to fail as the primary election system took hold and grew. The party bosses lost control and could no longer guarantee a candidate who would behave. You can argue whether that method of democratizing the nominating process is good or bad. It undeniably enabled candidates who have few or none of the character traits that have always been selected for such as willingness to abide by the law and not to push beyond the boundaries on every issue. Witness the current, impeached occupant of the Oval Office.

    If the selection of the candidate can no longer guarantee that a nominee will conform to the unwritten rules and expectations, then Congress in its oversight capacity has to insert itself more aggressively and the president must comply. If the president simply refuses to comply, then the presidency is well on its way to an autocracy.

    Running the USA is not a win/lose proposition. It is a long term event that we want to continue. It requires tolerance and forbearance for the other team. So when your side loses, it’s best not to sink the ship but try to influence the navigation. When your side, wins, it’s best not to throw the other side overboard. You might need them to help fight pirates. So the president claims to drain the swamp but is in reality just jettisoning the ballast and the spare sails, throws the signaling equipment overboard and sells the lookout station. Congress watches, cowering, from the hold hoping the ship doesn’t flounder before his term expires.

    So how does this event – remember I’m writing about the president’s tweet on a Buffalo protester – play into all of this and why did it finally motivate to write again? It isn’t the president. I expect nothing of him. It’s his enablers. Especially the ones who have been in government for ages (i.e., the Senate apologists) and refuse to address even a single episode of destructive behavior because they are more interested in staying in power than they are is doing their jobs. Most of them have not condemned Floyd’s murder, police brutality as a practice, systemic racism nor the insane tweet that set me off. They are the ones who have abandoned the constitution and the people of the United States. Enough.

  • The Democrats’ Huge Responsibility

    The Democratic Party has a huge responsibility. It is must nominate a person to save the United States from a drift toward autocracy and oligarchy as well as saving the world from disintegration into more aggressive and disputatious tribes. Oh, and by the way, the nominee also has to win, to administer the government of the US and to establish some reasonable policies around oh, so many things.

    That the Trump administration thumbs its nose at the rule of law and at congressional oversight is no revelation. Nor is its appointment of incompetent sycophants in key positions (23 year old director of personnel anyone? How about a Director of National Intelligence lacking the intelligence experience mandated by law?) Not even its constant “exaggeration” of the truth and reflexive lying. One area that may not be as obvious is the harm to national security. Many people of both parties have tired of our frequent misguided international adventures. However, the solution is to reduce the need for adventures by helping to manage chaotic and increasingly complex international relationships, not to withdraw and pretend everything is ok as long as we win each individual transaction.

    We are almost certainly at higher risk now than three years ago. There is no evidence that North Korea has slowed down its nuclear program. Iran has been given a green light to proceed with theirs, Turkey is becoming a very unreliable member of NATO. NATO has been threatened by Trump if they don’t pay up or pay us for our support. Russia now holds greater power in the middle east. China is not being challenged in the South China Sea. Military experience is ignored in matters of military discipline and law. Military budget is diverted for non-military for pet projects. Ambassadorships are unfilled. The State Department and several others have been trashed. The list goes on and on.

    The main concern raised by this list is that collectively it shows a disregard for the value of foreign partnerships and alliances. A bunch of bilateral transactions cannot be as strong as a few multi-lateral, multi-national agreements that serve common interests rather than only our own. The Trump administration cannot see the value in that and assume that if each individual event is in our favor, then the whole game must be a victory. The next president must begin to reestablish the credibility of the US in foreign policy. That, in turn requires rebuilding the State Department and repopulating ambassadorships and many mid- and lower level positions within State.

    There is growing division within the country and it is lead by the president. We see the politicization of everything, much of it emanating from the White House. That is not to say that Democrats are above politics, just that they are not as good at it! Which is another reason they have to win! It is essential that we return to fixing problems and establishing policies that work for people rather than policies that just have good, outrage-generating political sound bites.

    However, the threat I am most worried about is to American values both in the short and long term. Conservatives complained that Obama’s administration was a threat to American values too. So let me make clear I’m not talking about pro-choice/pro-life, pro or con gun rights, big government vs small government, deficit management – oh, wait, that one is not on anyone’s list any more. The thrust toward autocratic processes, court manipulation and total opaqueness in government dealings sounds and looks remarkably like the move toward a police state. I don’t see this as a short term issue but one that could be firmly entrenched wth another five years of Trumpism.

    This is a threat not only to the United States but to the world. And not just the so-called “free world”. The US has had its hands in many sordid international adventures that raise doubt about our values and the president has in fact said we’re no different from anyone else (“We’re no angels”). The saving grace of the Shining City on the Hill or American Exceptionalism has always been the existence and pursuit of values denoted in our “sacred documents” – the Declaration of Independence, Constitution, Federalist papers and others over the years that lay out the goals of a government that derives its authority from the people. It allows for mistakes as long as we try to return to the path forward.

    This administration is not trying. In fact it seems completely happy to erase the bread crumb trail so we won’t be able to find out way back. This is not only an issue of the Trump administration but seemingly across the globe in countries that once seemed destined for the rule of law by consent of the governed – Turkey, Hungary, the Philippines to name a few. As alliances crumble, there is no longer leadership to help resolve disputes. Trade disagreements and disputes over sovereignty reign. That’s why the UK is leaving the EU.

    The next president must take on all of these challenges while working with the Republicans on budgets, health care immigration, housing and more. You – Democratic Party primary voters – must nominate someone who can replace the current president and begin to build new coalitions and ideas that will unite us. Barring that, we may as well begin mandatory Chinese language and culture lessons in Kindergarten because China will soon be in charge of a disintegrated America.

  • A Theory of Everything Trump

    Pundits often attempt to explain the president’s actions and motivations.  I catalogued many Trump actions, tweets and comments in a framework based on my characterization of him.  Almost everything he does can be explained if viewed through this framework.  Simply, the framework describes the president as a

    • thin-skinned,
    • narcissistic,
    • bully,
    • whose only goal is his personal brand management.

    (more…)

  • Real News

    Let’s be clear. I still think the Donald is a thin-skinned, narcissistic bully whose only goal is self-promotion.

    Nonetheless, CNN and other media outlets must de-escalate the Russia story and find more time for other news. There are two reasons for this. First, there is other important news. Second, roughly one-third of the country doesn’t care. If you want to maintain (or reestablish) a reputation for fair coverage, you can’t spend all your on-air time talking about something a third of your potential viewers think is unimportant and won’t be interested in unless something much more definitive comes to light. It looks more like harassment than news coverage to a lot of people and is divisive. Don’t stop reporting on new facts related to Russian election-meddling, possible collusion and hacking. Just don’t spend all day and all night covering the same issues. (more…)

  • No Harm, No Foul

    Kelly Anne Conway and Donald Trump Jr have both used the “no harm, no foul” excuse in relation to the recently disclosed meeting between Jr, Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort with a Russian attorney.  Because the Russian attorney failed to deliver derogatory information about Hillary Clinton, as Trump apparently had expected, they say “nothing to see here, move along”.  No harm, no foul.

    I’m not sure that applies to politics.   (more…)

  • So Happy to Have a Strong, Thoughtful and Effective POTUS – a Fantasy

    Looking back to the Obama years, I have to say they were boring.  Yes, Republican obstruction provided some excitement from time to time.  Remember when they were ready to shut down the government?  That was a hoot!  But generally the No-drama-Obama years were more dulls than lulz.

    No more!  It began with the president’s promise to unify the nation in his inaugural address.  You remember.   (more…)