On February 28th, I published a list of stated objectives for Trump’s war in Iran.  They included prohibiting nuclear weapons production, missile production, general peace and stability in the middle east and destroying the navy.  Various administration officials also include, from time to time regime change to free the people of Iran and preemptive self defense. 

The rest of this essay looks at the question of how will we know that these objectives have been met and therefore the war is over?

Goal: Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.  Fair enough. It is a bad idea to let them develop one.  It is a bad idea to allow any other nation to develop a nuclear weapon and we are not the only nation interested in that goal.  What is required for Iran never to have a nuclear weapon? 

1.         Their production capacity must be destroyed or limited to what is necessary for civilian use.  We claimed that we obliterated it in June by bombing.  Since we are at war again to destroy it, we must assume bombing alone is not sufficient. 

2.        We can bomb the external sites we know of and make it impossible to use the current entrances.  But we can’t know there are not other entrances nor whether the bombing was fully effective nor that Iranian government did not create new sites since we last inspected. 

3.        If we can’t know, and bombing based on recent history was insufficient, we will have to send in inspectors.  That means a ground invasion with troops, nuclear technical specialists, specialized equipment to inspect and remove materials that are hazardous to handle and may be damaged and radioactive. 

4.        To prevent resurrection of the nuclear development, we need continuous inspections.  That requires an agreement that should at a minimum include the other participants of the JCPOA.

5.        Achieving a new agreement may also require a new government or at least new leaders who are open to the idea of shelving their nuclear ambitions. 

Goal:  Stop Iran’s missile development.  We do not want them to have ICBMs.  The only purpose an ICBM could have is delivering bombs to nations far away.  That likely means the US today but could be Europe, China, Russia, Pakistan or others at some point in the future.  Again, limiting the nations that have this capacity probably makes the world safer. The requirements are much the same as those for the bomb except there may not be as much need for an international inspection program.  However, it would make sense to combine a missile and bomb inspection program into one. 

Goal:  Trump frequently states that destroying the navy is a military objective and is essentially complete. 

1.        There are two Iranian navies.  The conventional force (Islamic Republic of Iran Navy) operates military vessels including submarines and surface ships plus drones.  It defends the Iranian coast and conducts long range patrols. 

2.        The IRGC navy is an insurgency group that ferries supplies and equipment to Hezbollah, Hamas and others.  It operates swarms of boats that can attack quickly in large numbers, are inexpensive and fast. The IRGC navy is a bigger threat to the US navy than the conventional Iranian navy.  It is capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz through the fear of attacks that are very hard to fight off. 

3.        While US forces can easily destroy the conventional navy, the more dangerous one is the IRGC.  Destroying it solely with air power is likely impossible. 

4.        It will also take ground troops and specialists to find and destroy the fleets of speedboats, mines, drones, and explosives used in asymmetric naval warfare and to  blockade the Strait of Hormuz.  As we learned in Viet Nam (and Afghanistan and Iraq), fighting an insurgent guerrilla army with a conventional army is very costly and difficult.

Goal:  Iran must stop exporting terrorism and instability throughout the region.  This might also be regime change to free the people depending on who is talking.  They have the same requirements. 

1.        The IRGC must be disempowered.  They need to be under control of a government that is not dedicated to the destruction of Israel.  IRGC is dedicated to protecting Islam.  The regular army, Artesh, is dedicated to protecting the country.  IRGC is half the size of Artesh but gets more money and attention. There is tension between the two organizations.  The strain of the war will exacerbate it.  Artesh might be a weak link but it is not apparent that anyone is trying to exploit it. 

2.        Iran definitely cannot have nuclear weapons if they do not cease exporting terrorism. Having a nuclear capability and also being a sponsor of terror campaigns is not tenable for anyone in the region.   

3.        There needs to be new leadership and perhaps a new government structure.  If the structure remains the same, the leaders must be replaced by some that accept the existence of Israel, reject the IRGC and accept peace as a goal. 

4.        The identity of at least ten percent of the country is tightly wrapped up in their IRGC or Basij identity and the destruction of Israel and America.  Their objection to America is largely based on our presence in the middle east.  That was also Osama bin Laden’s objection that led to 9/11.  This issue will not go away easily nor quickly  

 To follow through on any these objectives requires ground support.  The president’s view seems to be if we bomb all the surface targets to pieces, we win.  And if they don’t capitulate, we will just bomb some more.  It does not seem to recognize that fully achieving any of these goals requires ground operations unless Iran gives up.  It also dramatically underestimated Iran’s capacity to keep fighting an insurgent war.  Surely thoughts of Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq and even Viet Nam should remind all of us that when a nation is attacked by outsiders, it becomes quite resilient.   

Nothing so far indicates the US is planning anything approaching the scale of work required to accomplish any of the stated objectives.  So here we are, 12 days into the war, with well over $16 billion spent, the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island burning, fertilizer and gas prices skyrocketing world over, military supplies dwindling, Russia openly helping Iran and profiting immensely for it, while the president is simultaneously declaring victory, an end to the war and saying we need to finish it but it will be over when “he feels it in his bones”.  But maybe that is just his bone spurs acting up. 

This will also be published in my Substack.